Weather damage, port congestion and closed shipping routes have reshaped the global orange trade this season.

South Africa’s citrus campaign has been one of its most difficult on record. Rain and wind damaged peel quality, northern ports left millions of cartons awaiting shipment, and with Middle East routes closed by conflict and high freight costs, much of the crop stayed home. Valencia exports finished at 56.6 million cartons against an original forecast of 63 million, and Europe absorbed the difference, its share rising from 36% to 43%.

The map is shifting again. Spain’s harvest comes in 4.6% smaller at 2.8 million tonnes, Egypt’s campaign runs unusually late on demand for sizes unwanted earlier in the year, and North American buyers face tightening supply of small fruit as California winds down. The lesson for exporters: this season, shipping routes and size profiles moved the market more than volume.