El Niño and weather-driven crop losses are reshaping mango supply windows, with U.S. imports projected to fall to 131-136 million boxes in 2026.

Supply conditions are shifting across major mango origins. In North America, Mexico’s season ended early with Nayarit losing around 80% of its crop. Ecuador has been hit hard by El Niño, with volumes expected to fall to 6.6 million boxes from 14 million, while Peru reports weak Kent flowering. Brazil is the main beneficiary, expected to ship 40% more volume to the U.S. and extend its commercial window into February.

In Europe, markets are transitioning toward Mediterranean supply. Spain’s harvest is forecast 25-30% below the 2025 record and Israel’s crop 50-60% below normal, keeping the market firm. Egypt is gaining ground with strong European demand for its Naomi and Keitt varieties. With El Niño probability above 90% from September through December, exporters should anticipate shorter, more volatile seasons and greater attention to quality and phytosanitary compliance.