Banana demand is recovering in Europe, but a 25% jump in freight costs is reshaping who stays profitable.

The story this season isn’t price — it’s margin. European demand is bouncing back after a weak summer (Dutch green bananas are back to €15-16.50, Italian sales up with the new school year), yet Central and South American suppliers are absorbing a 25% rise in logistics costs alongside pricier fertilizer and packaging, and retailers are pushing back on higher selling prices. North American contract talks now point to considerably higher prices for 2027, with diesel and a weaker dollar adding pressure.

The contrast at origin is stark. In India, export disruptions and oversupply collapsed Jalgaon prices to €0.03/kg — below cost — with one grower bulldozing his plantation. In South Africa, even though flooding in Mozambique has reduced supply, prices stay under pressure because local demand is weak. The takeaway for exporters: volume alone no longer protects income, and cost control, logistics and reliable buyer relationships increasingly decide who profits.