As Peruvian and South African supply winds down, Mexico takes the lead and several origins converge on the same winter windows.

The global avocado market is in seasonal transition, with Peru and South Africa tapering off while Mexico, Chile, Morocco, Spain and Israel enter their seasons. In Europe, prices are under pressure: Israeli greenskin fruit fell from €11-13 to €7-8 per box in a week after new import restrictions in the Netherlands redirected volumes, while Peruvian Hass dropped to around €8. In North America, Mexico is the dominant supplier, with about 2.38 billion pounds exported to the U.S. in 2025.

The coming weeks will be decided by timing. Between weeks 40 and 12, combined shipments from Chile, Colombia, Israel, Spain and Morocco could reach 500 million kg, leaving Morocco a narrow window between weeks 45 and 51 — where size and 72-hour truck transit are its advantages. Meanwhile, Colombia has shifted 98% of one exporter’s volume to Europe as its U.S. share fell from 32% to 9%, and Peru’s 2026 volumes are 1.9% lower than last season. Quality, traceability and logistics are increasingly part of the value equation.