A strengthening El Niño, expected to intensify from September, brings crop, logistics, and trade risks across Latin America.

Researchers expect this El Niño to potentially exceed the intensity of the 2015-16 event, the strongest on modern record. The pattern brings contrasting effects across the region: above-normal rainfall in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil could improve soil moisture for soybean, corn, and wheat, though flooding and muddy roads may disrupt field operations and transport routes to ports. Farther north, Peru’s coast faces flood risks while its highlands could experience water scarcity, a pattern also expected in Chile. Warmer Pacific waters are already affecting fisheries, with Peru’s fishing activity down 31% in the first five months of the year.

Drier conditions in northern Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela raise risks of drought, extreme heat, and wildfires, threatening crop and livestock production as well as river transport through the Amazon basin, a key corridor for soybean exports. In Panama, the Canal Authority is reducing vessel draft limits to conserve water, which can cut cargo loads and increase shipping costs, with forecasts pointing to a drought at least as severe as the 2023-2024 dry period. For exporters and buyers, monitoring climate impacts on harvests and logistics will be essential in the coming months.