We expect next week’s Canadian labour report to show a 200k increase in employment – the smallest gain in 5 months. Still, the increase will bring the cumulative job recovery to 2.1 million, or 70% of the 3 million jobs lost in March and April. The unemployment rate is expected to dial down to 9.4%, in part reflecting a sizeable number of unemployed students returning to school in September. The summer jobs market was, predictably, very bleak this year. The number of unemployed (but not yet graduated) students was 225k higher this August than a year earlier. As these students head back to school in September and a portion of them stop looking for work, the pool of unemployed workers will shrink as well.
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